[SMM Analysis] The voice against "rat race" competition grows louder, cell prices start to rise

Recently, the central government has made frequent statements, sternly pointing out the issues of overcapacity and disorderly competition in the PV industry, and explicitly calling for accelerated capacity exits. In response to policy directives, the polysilicon, wafer, and solar cell sectors have initiated coordinated price increases.

1 Wafer

This week, the quoted price for N-type 183mm wafers is 1 yuan/piece, for 210R wafers is 1.15 yuan/piece, and for 210mm wafers is 1.35 yuan/piece. The wafer quotes have surged significantly this week, primarily due to the strong support from the rising market quotes for polysilicon. As most solar cell plants maintained low inventory levels in the early stage, the demand for wafers has soared rapidly amid full production line operations, and transactions have been concluded at high prices, directly transmitting cost pressure to the solar cell end.

2 Solar cell

This week, the quoted prices for TOPCon high-efficiency solar cells have also risen, with 183N quoted at 0.25 yuan/W, 210RN at 0.265 yuan/W, and 210N at 0.265 yuan/W. However, the willingness of the module sector to accept the price increase is not strong. Based on today's trading results, the overall trading volume in the market is low, and the actual highest trading price for some 210-series products has fallen to 0.26 yuan/W.

To strengthen bargaining power, multiple solar cell plants have voluntarily delayed shipments this week, both in response to the "anti-rat race" policy to repair losses and to reverse the disorderly situation of low-price order-grabbing through supply regulation.

3 Module

Similarly, affected by the rise in upstream polysilicon prices, the production costs of integrated manufacturers will increase. The average price of PV modules, including tax and transportation, has been raised, with increases ranging from 0.3% to 1.5%. Distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.672 yuan/W, 0.693 yuan/W, and 0.672 yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.65 yuan/W and 0.665 yuan/W respectively. Manufacturers' strategies have diverged significantly: some first- and second-tier module manufacturers have been active and aggressive in raising prices, while others are in a wait-and-see period, lacking confidence in demand, and are cautious in adjusting prices, preferring to maintain stable prices. Meanwhile, third- and fourth-tier manufacturers are still lowering prices to secure orders.

This round of policy-driven price increases has established a complete transmission chain: polysilicon leads the gains (raising the price benchmark of the industry chain) → wafers (+0.1-0.15 yuan/piece) → solar cells (+0.02-0.025 yuan/W) → modules partially follow with tentative price increases. Short-term prices are expected to recover. However, demand remains a crucial anchor point determining the sustainability of this price increase. Amid the sluggish distributed market, the willingness of centralized power plants to accept price increases for PV products becomes particularly important. Limited by project yield pressure, the room for module price increases is extremely constrained, thereby affecting the degree of cost control by module manufacturers.

At present, both cell and module sides remain in a phase of strategic interaction, with the cell sector potentially abandoning price resistance to stabilize cash flow amid rising inventory levels, while the module sector may take orders at high prices to ensure timely shipments despite tight inventory conditions. Both parties need to mitigate operational risks during the market观望 period through prudent production scheduling and multi-channel shipments, in order to achieve sustainable development for themselves and the industry.